Investigative Analysis: Pennsylvania Election, 2024, Part 1

Part 1: The Setup

Pennsylvania was deemed a “must-win” for both parties vying for the 2024 Presidential election. In the closing days of the campaign, polling identified Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump were neck and neck in the state, reflected by the Nov 4th “270toWin Polling Average” in Pennsylvania that showed both candidates polling at 48.2%.

Pennsylvania Nov 4 Final Polling Average

However, as the hour grew late on the night of November 5th, Donald Trump emerged as the victor of this swing state, securing 3,543,308 votes, compared to Kamala Harris’ tally of 3,423,042, a difference of only 120,266 votes.

Trump also won every other swing state in the country. In the days that followed the election, preliminary estimates bubbled up regarding how unlikely it seemed that one candidate could win all seven swing states — outside of mandatory recount margins — while securing less than 50% of the popular vote. The last time one Presidential candidate won seven swing states was 1984, when Ronald Reagan won 49 of 50 states with 58.8% of the popular vote.¹

The Election Truth Alliance (ETA), a non-profit, non-partisan organization supporting election analysis, has uncovered investigative findings and data patterns consistent with voter manipulation in their analysis of Pennsylvania election results. We are advocating for hand-audit of paper ballot records in Pennsylvania.

Additionally, Donald Trump has made statements that raise alarm about election interference in Pennsylvania. At a pre-inauguration rally on January 19, 2025, he commented from the podium that Elon Musk’s familiarity with “vote-counting computers” connected to “winning Pennsylvania like in a landslide.”

Nathan Taylor, ETA Executive Director of Advocacy and Public Engagement, has described the specific reference to ‘vote-counting computers’ in this context as concerning. “Vote tabulators are essentially ballot-counting machines and are a critical part of America’s election infrastructure,” states Taylor. “Some are built-in, and others are stand-alone systems. Tabulators can scan and interpret ballots, store ballot images, and add vote totals. If tabulators have been compromised, we have a huge problem with the integrity of our elections.”

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Part 1: The Setup

In October 2024, less than one month before the election, Elon Musk’s America PAC launched a tour of Pennsylvania, where he promised to give away $1 million a day to voters in swing states in exchange for their signature and address on a petition “supporting the first and second amendment”. This giveaway raised alarm among election experts who feared it violated federal law. The PAC required voting registration prerequisite to be eligible for the $1 million check.

Brendan Fischer, a campaign finance lawyer, said Musk’s giveaway encroached on a legal boundary. “There would be few doubts about the legality if every Pennsylvania-based petition signer were eligible, but conditioning the payments on registration arguably violates the law,” Fischer said.

Rick Hasen, a UCLA Law School political science professor, pointed to a law prohibiting paying people for registering to vote or for voting. “The problem is that the only people eligible to participate in this giveaway are the people who are registered to vote,” Hasen told AP News. “And that makes it illegal.”

Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, formerly Pennsylvania State Attorney General, expressed public concern about the supposed lottery on NBC’s “Meet the Press”. “I think there are real questions with how he is spending money in this race, how the dark money is flowing, not just into Pennsylvania, but apparently now into the pockets of Pennsylvanians. That is deeply concerning.”

On November 4, 2024 – just one day before the U.S. Presidential Election – a Pennsylvania judge ruled that the stunt could continue – based on admission from Musk’s lawyers that the winners of the “sweepstakes” were pre-selected. With no actual element of chance, it was therefore not a lottery.

Regardless, Musk’s team was able to gather a large list of names and addresses of potential voters within Pennsylvania and other swing states in the weeks leading up to the 2024 election. The underlying intent for this list remains unknown; however, it has been pointed out by technological security specialists that names and addresses would be the exact information needed to electronically ‘stuff ballot boxes’, hacking and updating electronic poll books with the names of registered voters who hadn’t turned up to vote.

Deeply concerning, indeed.

Check out Parts 2 and 3 of this series:

Part 2: Election Day

Part 3: The Fallout

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1. Note: An earlier version of this article included reference to a quote from a Planet Critical article claiming that the odds of such a victory were “north of a 35 billion to 1 probability”. As the ETA does not have access to the underlying assumptions used to arrive at this figure, it has been removed from the current draft.

Disclaimer: Election Truth Alliance (ETA) is a non-profit, nonpartisan, volunteer-led organization dedicated to free and fair elections. Our present focus is on the 2024 Presidential Election in which we took a keen interest after election and cybersecurity experts announced the appearance of numerous irregularities in the election results. For this endeavor, ETA brought together a broad range of experts, which span across multiple disciplines, including, but not limited to, data analysis, political science, cybersecurity, auditing, computer engineering and bioengineering. Opinion and analysis is based on current data available.

ETA employed a data-driven analysis of the Cast Vote Records (CVR), corresponding voter data, ballot images and other accessible information; such analysis was performed at each stage of the voting process, from early in-person voting, mail in ballots to day of in-person voting.

All posts are subject to update as new or corrected information is brought to our attention, or if there is other information to share with readers.